UFC Morales vs Burns

Another horrible Apex card. Small plays because these awful events often kill me.

>Burns +575 vs Morales
I do not expect Burns to win. Value play because of his experience and finishing ability against a less experienced opponent. It’s possible Burns has a major grappling advantage and holds Morales down for most the fight.

>Pinheiro +270 vs Pennington
Another value play. Tecia should not be this large of a favorite vs anyone. Her fight style is tailor made for split decisions.

>Gomes ITD +150 vs Reed
This is a mismatch. Gomes is too large a favorite to bet ML so let’s take the finish prop. If Gomes fails to finish Reed I’d be surprised.

>DelValle by KO +225
Matthews is not UFC caliber. He gets hit too much and this is his last UFC fight most likely. DelValle is an unknown making his debut so don’t bet lots on this one.

>Moises +105 vs Gordon
Interesting fight. The winner probably gets a decent name next. The loser is no longer considered a good fighter. Moises’ gas tank worries me but I like his finishing upside. Gordon always gets fucked by the judges too.

>Costa -175 vs Erosa
Bad matchup for Juicy J. Costa is much more technical and I don’t think he’ll get subbed by one of Erosa’s guillotines. Costa by KO/DEC.

>Yusuff +114 vs Santos
I think Santos sucks. He won one of the worst decisions you’ll ever see last time out vs Francis Marshall. Yusuff was a big 145er so he won’t be undersized at LW. I’d handicap Yusuff as the favorite.

>Craig by sub +800
It’s his best path to victory. Bellato makes bad decisions in the cage. Craig is very live to grab a triangle or leglock or some other meme sub.

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