>>39884664
Modified God’s Coin Toss With Chimips: God flips a coin. If it comes up heads, he makes one human. If it comes up tails, he makes one human and nine chimps. You are created—and a human. What odds should you give to tails?

Here, this case seems relevantly different from God’s extreme coin toss with jackets. It seems like in an important sense you couldn’t have been one of the chimps. Thus, it doesn’t matter how many chimps get created on each hypothesis—that’s just not relevant to your probabilistic reasoning (if you disagree about chimps, replace it with bacteria).

So your reference class is the class of entities that you should reason as if you’re randomly selected from. How do SSAers decide on a reference class? Answer: they just basically make it up to comport with their intuitions. There isn’t a principled basis for a reference class!

What’s wrong with SSA?
Okay, aside from the totally made-up reference class, what’s wrong with SSA? Seems to make sense of our intuitions. But unfortunately, it implies some crazy things. To see this, consider:

Eve and Adam, the first two humans, knew that if they gratified their flesh, Eve might bear a child, and if she did, they would be expelled from Eden and would go on to spawn billions of progeny that would cover the Earth with misery. One day a serpent approached the couple and spoke thus: “Pssst! If you embrace each other, then either Eve will have a child or she won’t. If she has a child then you will have been among the first two out of billions of people. Your conditional probability of having such early positions in the human species given this hypothesis is extremely small. If, one the other hand, Eve doesn’t become pregnant then the conditional probability, given this, of you being among the first two humans is equal to one. By Bayes’s theorem, the risk that she will have a child is less than one in a billion. Go forth, indulge, and worry not about the consequences!”

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GOD EXISTS! THE ANTHROPIC ARGUMENT AND FINE TUNING ARGUMENT PROVE GOD EXISTS